Retitled: Tropical storm Lupit (Ramil) [former typhoon]

[israeli]

just imagine how big Super Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is when it is compared to the island of Luzon. 



Lupit (Ramil) will cover much of Luzon!

[israeli]

UPDATE: As of 9:00pm tonight, www.typhoon2000.ph reported that the wind speed of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) had gone down to 215 kilometers per hour. Despite the decrease in its wind speed and the downgrade from its previous Super Typhoon status, Lupit (Ramil) remains to be a powerful Category 4 typhoon which remains a threat to extreme Northern Luzon.

[Adroth]

Residents in path of ‘Ramil’ have 4 days to prepare
By RIO ROSE RIBAYA
October 19, 2009, 5:54pm

Residents of Northern Luzon have four more days to prepare for Typhoon "Ramil," which is expected to directly hit Batanes, Cagayan, Kalinga, and Ilocos Norte on Thursday, the weather bureau said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration said it expects Ramil to move westward starting Tuesday, influenced by a ridge of high pressure area (HPA) near Hong Kong and Taiwan which intensified Monday.

PAGASA director Nathaniel Cruz said the ridge of HPA will continue to force Ramil westward until Wednesday, which would allow people to buy time and seek higher ground before the typhoon makes landfall on Thursday.

"The eye of the typhoon may not hit land but the typhoon's circulation will affect provinces in the North including Batanes, Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao, Ifugao, Quirino, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan," Cruz said.

Last Saturday, Ramil started to slither across the Philippine Sea near Aurora province, moving at a very slow northward pace until it was 1,110 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan as of 10 a.m. on Monday.

The typhoon maintained maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of 210 kph while moving at 3 to 4 kph as of 10 a.m. Monday.

Cruz said Ramil could start moving southwest on Wednesday, which would expose the Ilocos and Cordillera regions to the eye of the typhoon should the HPA near Hong Kong continue to intensify.

"So let's pray that the HPA will not intensify further so that Typhoon Ramil will remain moving westward while passing above Northern Luzon," he said.

The weather bureau official said Luzon and the Visayas provinces will experience scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the prevailing Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) near Palawan.

He clarified that the initial effects of the typhoon such as storm surges, gusty winds and intense rains will not be felt until Wednesday evening.

Ramil has been expected to be at about 900 kilometers east northeast of Aparri on Tuesday morning, and about 510 kilometers east northeast of the same town in Cagayan by Wednesday morning.

The Philippine Coast Guard has placed 20 of its rescue teams on full alert in anticipation of the typhoon onslaught.

Coast Guard Admiral Wilfredo Tamayo said two teams have already been dispatched to Northern Luzon to augment rescue units in the area which was recently devastated by typhoon “Pepeng”. He said eight teams are on standby at the Coast Guard Headquarters in Manila and Taguig.

The Coast Guard vessel BRP EDSA 2 under the command of Commodore Rodolfo Villajuan Monday started to sail towards La Union to facilitate the rescue units and serve as command post for other PCG rescue teams. The PCG Air Group was also placed on standby alert in case air evacuation is required.

Tamayo also requested shipping companies based in Manila for the availability of their rubber boats and life rafts in case of massive flooding. (With a report from John Carlo Cahinhinan)

[israeli]

UPDATE: As of 6:00AM today, October 20, 2009, www.typhoon2000.ph reported that Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has been downgraded into a Category 3 Typhoon from its previous Category 4 Typhoon. Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is still very dangerous, possessing a wind speed of up to 195 kilometers per hour and still poses a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.

[israeli]

UPDATE: As of 9:00AM today, October 20, 2009, www.typhoon2000.ph reported that Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has been further downgraded from its previous status as a Category 3 Typhoon to its current status as a Category 2 Typhoon. Lupit (Ramil) still has maximum sustain winds of up to 175 kilometers per hour and still poses a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.

[israeli]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 20 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" continues to move towards Northern Luzon. 


Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.)  820 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
 

Coordinates:  20.2°N, 130.3°E


Strength:  Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
 

Movement:  West at 17 kph
 

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Wednesday morning: 460 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan

Thursday morning: 120 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan

Friday morning: 150 kms Southwest of Laoag City
 
 
 
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal:


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):
Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Polillo Islands


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

[darthnbs]

[israeli]

update from www.typhoon2000.ph:


TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 20 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026


Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowing down as it starts heading westward...currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...no change in strength.

*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (particularly Northern Luzon) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slightly decelerate and turn more westerly to WSW-ward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slighty strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT approaching the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and steer the dangerous typhoon. LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on early Thursday evening Oct 22...passing very close to the north of Aparri between 8-9PM Thu. It shall cross Apayao and exit thru Ilocos Norte-Sur Area on Friday afternoon Oct 23, between 2-3PM...and over the South China Sea on Saturday morning, Oct 24. The typhoon shall turn westward while over the South China Sea, in the direction of Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Sunday Oct 25. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China weakens. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains fair.  Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become slightly stable. The eye remains cloud-filled as undergoes an Eyewall Replacement as shown on current satellite images. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

[israeli]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 20 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon. 


Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.)  750 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
 
Coordinates:  20.4°N, 129.4°E 

Strength:  Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near center and gustiness of up to 230 kph
 
Movement:  West at 15 kph
 
Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon: 440 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday afternoon: 90 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 195 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan or
Friday afternoon: 180 kms West Southwest of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):

Batanes Group of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Isabela


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[spiderweb6969]

from mcwood of http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showt...108150&page=471

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #028


Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has started moving slightly WSW-ward towards Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands expected to reach the area tonight or tomorrow.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast track has changed significantly with a much slower pace. The typhoon is now expected to decelerate as it tracks more WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT decelerating more as it approaches the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction. LUPIT shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Ilocos Norte, near or over the town of Pagudpod early Sunday morning Oct 25 or approx. 2-3AM, & shall pass just to the north of Laoag City approx. 8-9 AM (Sun Oct 25). By early Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move NW to Northward into Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast has increased, so a possible shift can happen. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's Eyewall Replacement Cycle has ended, now shows a large eyewall, with still a cloud-filled EYE...its over-all circulation has slightly improved. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight or tomorrow - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


-----


http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.


Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 600 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan

Coordinates: 20.5°N, 127.6°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph

Movement: West at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Thursday morning: 280 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Friday morning: 70 kms East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: At the vicinity of Laoag City or 50 kms North of Vigan City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):

Batanes Gr of Islands
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Isabela


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Benguet
La Union
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[israeli]

UPDATE from www.typhoon2000.ph:

October 20, 2009, 10:00AM: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) weakened to Category 1 Typhoon, packing wind speed of up to 150 kilometers per hour and is moving southwest at 19 kilometers per hour towards the Cagayan-Ilocos area.


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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.


Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 510 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
 
Coordinates:  20.1°N, 126.8°E 

Strength:  Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
 
Movement:  West Southwest at 15 kph
 
Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Thursday morning: 190 km Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or at 290 km East Northeast of Laoag City
Friday morning: 80 km Northeast of Laoag City
Saturday morning: 120 km West Northwest of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):

Northern Cagayan
Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands
Batanes Group of Islands


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Ilocos Sur
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030


Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving WSW closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands approaching Batanes Group & Northern Cagayan.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate as it tracks WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 2 (165 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Northeastern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan on Friday afternoon, Oct 23 approx. 2-3PM as it barely moves Westward. It shall continue moving ona slow trek across the Northern portions of Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte throughout Saturday Oct 24. The core shall be off Laoag City early Sunday morning Oct 25 at around 2-3AM as a weakened Tropical Storm. By Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea, away from Ilocos Norte, re-strengthening back to a minimal Typhoon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move WNW to NW-ward towards Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned current forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time, however, LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions can be expected within the next 36 to 72 hours. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


-----


http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 21 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it approaches Northern Luzon. 


Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.)  455 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
 
Coordinates:  19.7°N, 126.2°E 

Strength:  Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
 
Movement:  West Southwest at 15 kph
 
Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Thursday afternoon: 130 km East of Aparri, Cagayan or at 230 km East Northeast of Laoag City
Friday afternoon: vicinity of Laoag City
Saturday afternoon: 165 km West of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):

Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Pangasinan
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
Nueva Ecija
Tarlac
Zambales


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #032


Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slows down as it nears the coast of Cagayan...outer rainbands affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate further to just 4 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan Saturday morning, Oct 24 and shall turn westward slowly. It shall continue moving on a slow trek across the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte throughout the weekend until Monday Oct 26. LUPIT shall be off Northern Coast of Ilocos Norte late Monday evening as a downgraded Tropical Storm. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon on a direct hit. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands has been already affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" has slowed down as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon. 


Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.)  350 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
 
Coordinates:  19.0°N, 125.3°E 

Strength:  Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
 
Movement:  West Southwest slowly
 
Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Friday morning: 250 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
 

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):

Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Isabela


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033


Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowed down further near the NE coast of Cagayan...new forecast shows a turn to the WNW to NW in the coming days, and may spare Cagayan on a direct hit.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning west to WNW-ward slowly into the Balintang Channel, passing very close to the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009


Typhoon "RAMIL" continues to move slowly towards Northern Luzon.


 
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.)  300 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
 
Coordinates:  18.8°N, 124.7°E

Strength:  Maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near center and gustiness of up to 195 kph
 
Movement:  West Southwest slowly
 
Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Friday morning: 190 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning: 120 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Sunday morning: 70 kms Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan
 
 
 
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds):

Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Island
Babuyan Islands
Apayao


Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds):

Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Isabela
Abra
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Benguet
La Union
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora


Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds):

Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Bulacan
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.